Russia may likely attack Europe next winter, European intelligence source warns.
European intelligence sources have indicated the possibility of a Russian attack on Europe in the winter of 2024-2025, contingent upon the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as reported by the German tabloid Bild on December 23. Citing an anonymous European intelligence insider, the report suggests that if the United States faces a leadership vacuum after the election, Russia might seize the opportunity.
The intelligence source speculates that the potential timing of when Russia will likely attack Europe could coincide with the presidential transition period, spanning the three months from the November 2024 election to the subsequent inauguration in January 2025. This assessment is particularly contingent on President Joe Biden not securing re-election. The report also mentions that if former President Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate, is re-elected, assistance to European nations could be expected, albeit with some delay.
Former President Donald Trump, throughout his presidential campaign, has consistently criticized the level of aid provided by President Joe Biden’s administration to Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously underscored the potential impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.
Prior warnings from the German think tank DGAP have suggested the possibility of a direct Russian attack against NATO within the next six to 10 years. Meanwhile, Poland’s national security agency has expressed a more urgent concern, estimating a potential Russian attack on NATO in less than 36 months.
Polish officials have raised alarms about the likelihood of Russia targeting a NATO alliance member in Eastern Europe, including countries such as Poland, Estonia, Romania, and Lithuania.